Elo Ratings: The Ultimate Sports Ranking System
Understanding how we rank teams objectively and accurately
When it comes to ranking teams in high school football, traditional methods like win-loss records and poll-based rankings have significant limitations. They don't account for opponent strength, can be influenced by bias, and often fail to predict future performance accurately. That's why we use Elo ratings — a proven, objective system that provides a dynamic and accurate measure of each team's true strength.
What Are Elo Ratings?
Elo ratings were originally developed by physicist Arpad Elo in the 1960s to rank chess players. The system has since been successfully adapted to numerous sports including soccer, basketball, baseball, and football. The beauty of Elo lies in its simplicity: teams start with an initial rating that adjusts after each game based on the outcome and the strength of the opponent.
Key Principle: Winning against a strong opponent increases your rating more than beating a weak opponent. Likewise, losing to a weak opponent hurts your rating more than losing to a strong one.
Why Elo Ratings Are Superior
Real-Time Updates
Ratings update after every single game, providing an up-to-the-minute assessment of each team's strength. No waiting for weekly polls or committee meetings.
Predictive Power
The system calculates win probability for matchups, giving you a percentage-based prediction for each game. Our Elo system consistently achieves over 80% prediction accuracy.
Objective & Unbiased
Pure mathematics eliminates human bias, regional favoritism, and political considerations. Every team is judged solely on performance and opponent quality.
Accounts for Strength of Schedule
Unlike simple win-loss records, Elo considers who you beat and who you lost to. A quality win against a top team matters more than running up wins against weak opponents.
How It Works (The Simple Version)
- 1 Every team starts with a baseline rating (typically 1500)
- 2 After each game, ratings adjust based on the result and how unexpected it was
- 3 Beating a higher-rated team earns more points; losing to a lower-rated team costs more
- 4 Over time, consistent performance causes ratings to stabilize at a team's true strength level
Proven Track Record
Our Elo-based rating system has consistently demonstrated exceptional accuracy in predicting game outcomes. Over multiple seasons, we've achieved:
- Over 80% prediction accuracy for regular season games
- Accurate identification of playoff contenders early in the season
- Superior performance compared to traditional polling methods
Want to Learn More?
Dive deeper into how Elo ratings work and how we've customized them specifically for high school football.
