Season Profile
- Record
- 3-1
- Coach
- Bob Dlwgosh
- Football league
- Northeastern Athletic Conference · OSPR 48.7
- Division
- Division 7
- Region
- Region 25
St John School Fighting-Herald (
3-1
)
Ashtabula, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Sep 14, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
56.5
Through Week 4
- Statewide
- #211
- Division
- #24
- Region
- #5
Previous: After Week 3
OSPR 53.7 · Statewide #280 · Division #28 · Region #6
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 3.48
- Projected regional seed
- #9
- Most likely record
- 6-3
- Expected wins
- 5.6
- Playoff qualification
- 55.3%
Next Opponent
Saturday, Sep 19, 2026
Projected score: 20–23 (43.3% win estimate)
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
56.5
B
Tier
Rank
#24
Harbin
3.48
Rising
Confidence
55%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1560
CalPreps
1.34
FPI
15.07
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Sep 14, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 6–3
- Expected wins
- 5.6
- Average Harbin
- 9.22
- Likely regional seed
- #9
Harbin range: 2.37–17.27
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 55.3%
- Home position
- 28.1%
- First-round bye
- 5.3%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
vs. Pymatuning Valley
Win
10.39 Harbin
· #8 seed
72.2% in · 42.4% home · 9.7% bye
Loss
8.18 Harbin
· #14 seed
40.2% in · 15.3% home · 1.4% bye
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show Ashtabula St. John's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Final
Aug 21, 2026
33
Pick: L by 3 (41.7%)
Projected score: 19–22
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Aug 29, 2026
33
Pick: L by 4 (37.4%)
Projected score: 18–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 28, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 05, 2026
0
33
Pick: W by 1 (53.7%)
Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 4, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 11, 2026
14
0
Pick: L by 2 (44.8%)
Projected score: 20–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM
Scheduled
Sep 19, 2026
Pick: L by 3 (43.3%)
Projected score: 20–23
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM
Scheduled
Sep 26, 2026
Pick: L by 1 (48.9%)
Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM
Scheduled
Oct 09, 2026
Mathews
(2-2)
Pick: L by 1 (49.3%)
Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM
Scheduled
Oct 16, 2026
Pick: L by 1 (48.7%)
Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM
Scheduled
Oct 23, 2026
Pick: W by 8 (72.8%)
Projected score: 23–15
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/21 | A | Division 4, Region 13 | L | 0-33 |
Pick: L by 3 (41.7%) Projected score: 19–22
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 08/29 | H | Division 7, Region 25 | W | 33-0 |
Pick: L by 4 (37.4%) Projected score: 18–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 28, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/05 | H | Division 7, Region 25 | W | 33-0 |
Pick: W by 1 (53.7%) Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 4, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/11 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | W | 14-0 |
Pick: L by 2 (44.8%) Projected score: 20–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/19 | H | Division 6, Region 21 | — |
Pick: L by 3 (43.3%) Projected score: 20–23
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM |
|||
| 09/26 | H | Division 6, Region 21 | — |
Pick: L by 1 (48.9%) Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM |
|||
| 10/09 | A | Division 7, Region 25 | — |
Pick: L by 1 (49.3%) Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM |
|||
| 10/16 | A | Division 7, Region 25 | — |
Pick: L by 1 (48.7%) Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM |
|||
| 10/23 | H | Division 7, Region 25 | — |
Pick: W by 8 (72.8%) Projected score: 23–15
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 17, 2026 6:08 PM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.
