Season Profile
- Record
- 2-2
- Coach
- Isaiah Robinson
- Football leagues
- Independent / not assigned
- Division
- Division 6
- Region
- Region 21
St Thomas Aquinas Knights (
2-2
)
Louisville, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Sep 7, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
47.2
Through Week 3
- Statewide
- #407
- Division
- #74
- Region
- #21
Previous: After Week 2
OSPR 48.0 · Statewide #435 · Division #77 · Region #20
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 3.28
- Projected regional seed
- #18
- Most likely record
- 5-5
- Expected wins
- 4.8
- Playoff qualification
- 18.3%
Next Opponent
Friday, Sep 18, 2026
Projected score: 19–23 (39.8% win estimate)
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
47.2
C
Tier
Rank
#74
Harbin
3.28
Falling
Confidence
40%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1477
CalPreps
-0.63
FPI
-5.71
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Sep 7, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 5–5
- Expected wins
- 4.8
- Average Harbin
- 10.07
- Likely regional seed
- #18
Harbin range: 1.40–21.30
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 18.3%
- Home position
- 5.8%
- First-round bye
- 1.0%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
vs. Akron North
Win
11.40 Harbin
· #15 seed
28.4% in · 9.9% home · 1.8% bye
Loss
8.60 Harbin
· #22 seed
7.1% in · 1.3% home · 0.1% bye
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show St. Thomas Aquinas's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Final
Aug 21, 2026
14
43
Pick: L by 4 (40.0%)
Projected score: 17–21
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Aug 28, 2026
8
19
Pick: W by 1 (51.0%)
Projected score: 20–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 04, 2026
27
Pick: W by 2 (59.0%)
Projected score: 21–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 10, 2026
6
Pick: W by 1 (53.6%)
Projected score: 20–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 9, 2026 10:35 AM
Scheduled
Sep 18, 2026
Pick: L by 4 (39.8%)
Projected score: 19–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
Scheduled
Sep 26, 2026
Pick: W by 1 (52.5%)
Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
Scheduled
Oct 02, 2026
Minerva
(2-1)
Pick: L by 7 (28.7%)
Projected score: 17–24
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
Scheduled
Oct 09, 2026
Pick: W by 1 (50.0%)
Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
Scheduled
Oct 16, 2026
Pick: W by 5 (66.2%)
Projected score: 22–17
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
Scheduled
Oct 22, 2026
Pick: L by 2 (45.4%)
Projected score: 19–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/21 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 14-43 |
Pick: L by 4 (40.0%) Projected score: 17–21
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 08/28 | H | Division 7, Region 25 | W | 19-8 |
Pick: W by 1 (51.0%) Projected score: 20–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/04 | H | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 27-28 |
Pick: W by 2 (59.0%) Projected score: 21–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/10 | A | Division 2, Region 5 | W | 7-6 |
Pick: W by 1 (53.6%) Projected score: 20–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 9, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/18 | H | Division 5, Region 18 | — |
Pick: L by 4 (39.8%) Projected score: 19–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM |
|||
| 09/26 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | — |
Pick: W by 1 (52.5%) Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM |
|||
| 10/02 | A | Division 4, Region 15 | — |
Pick: L by 7 (28.7%) Projected score: 17–24
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM |
|||
| 10/09 | A | Division 7, Region 25 | — |
Pick: W by 1 (50.0%) Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM |
|||
| 10/16 | H | Division 4, Region 13 | — |
Pick: W by 5 (66.2%) Projected score: 22–17
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM |
|||
| 10/22 | A | Division 5, Region 17 | — |
Pick: L by 2 (45.4%) Projected score: 19–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 11, 2026 8:59 AM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.
